AI Outperforms Doctors in Predicting Alzheimer's Disease Progression

An AI program has demonstrated superior ability compared to doctors in identifying which individuals with early dementia will progress to Alzheimer's disease, according to a new study published in the journal eClinical Medicine.

Key Findings

The AI program predicted the progression from early dementia to Alzheimer's in 4 out of 5 cases, making it about three times more accurate than doctors who relied on brain scans, cognitive testing, and spinal fluid analysis for proteins like tau and amyloid.

"We've created a tool which, despite using only data from cognitive tests and MRI scans, is much more sensitive than current approaches at predicting whether someone will progress from mild symptoms to Alzheimer's -- and if so, whether this progress will be fast or slow," said senior researcher Zoe Kourtzi, a professor at the University of Cambridge.

Study Methodology

Researchers developed an AI model using brain scans and cognitive tests from 400 participants in a U.S. research project. The model was then tested on data from 600 additional U.S. patients and 900 individuals from memory clinics in Britain and Singapore.

The AI accurately predicted Alzheimer's development within three years in 82% of cases and identified stable dementia in 81% of cases. It also categorized patients based on their risk: 50% had stable dementia, 35% progressed to Alzheimer's slowly, and 15% more rapidly.

Implications for Treatment

The AI tool can help identify individuals at high risk for Alzheimer's, enabling early treatment and close monitoring. Conversely, it can also help identify patients whose symptoms may be due to other conditions like anxiety or depression.

"Memory problems are common as we get older. In clinic, I see how uncertainty about whether these might be the first signs of dementia can cause a lot of worry for people and their families," said researcher Dr. Ben Underwood, an assistant professor of psychiatry at the University of Cambridge. "The fact that we might be able to reduce this uncertainty with information we already have is exciting and is likely to become even more important as new treatments emerge."

Future Plans

Researchers aim to expand the AI model to other forms of dementia and incorporate additional data types, such as blood test results. "Our vision is to scale up our AI tool to help clinicians assign the right person at the right time to the right diagnostic and treatment pathway," Kourtzi said.

For more information on the difference between dementia and Alzheimer's disease, visit the Alzheimer's Association website.